The Fed announces what everyone knew already, namely the housing market has undergone a cool-down induced by increased interest rates. The only real issue is whether this data is a quarter old and really needs to be seen as history. Local anecdocatal data would suggest that the cool-down is over and the housing market is back in growth mode.
Goldman Sachs analysts predict that Fed Funds will go down 1.25% percent in 2007 to 4% while JP Morgan Chase predicts the opposite that Fed Funds will go up to 6% in an effort to hold down inflation. I would tend to side with Goldman Sach, though I would prefer that the Fed go neutral for a year, just plain leave the rates alone at 5% ... and see if the market's own liquidity won't be enough.
Terror Update: Tamil Rebel blows up convoy in Sri Lanka. More Moslem Extremists blowing up people so they can keep the world from seeking a level of peace and resolution.
Lebanon wants an aid conference so we can give them a ton of cash. Now a couple problems. Will they agree to continue moving toward a real democracy? Will they make sure the cash goes to those who were displaced or will we be lining the pockets of the mullahs? Will Christians have freedome of expression? Will they even start making Hezbollah's life hard in their country? Or did we just agree to international blackmail?
School Choice the recipe for middle class growth? “Any policy that loosens the ironclad relationship between location-location-location and school-school-school would eliminate the need for parents to pay an inflated price for a home just because in happens to lie within the boundaries of a desirable school district. A well-designed voucher program would fit the bill neatly.” Read full article.
Looks like a crack is widening in the the anti-US sentiment that seems to have dominated Latin America for the last ten years. In Ecuador a possible decent candidate for President looks like he's gained some support against a classic Chavista type wack job. Time to pick up a few more good leaders in Latin America.
Monday, October 16, 2006
Wednesday, October 11, 2006
Election 2008
Looks like John McCain has signaled his intentions to run for President, and taken the first 2008 campaign shot at Hillary Clinton!
He blamed the North Korean's ability to gain nuclear weaponry on Bill Clinton and his failed policies of appeasement with the rougue state. So much for 2006 and who's going to control Congress, the game is on for 2008.
Prediction: Republicans barely hold House and Senate. Bush's numbers start back up since gas prices are down and interest rates are headed back down after the first of the year. Iraq troops drawn down during 2007 to 50% of current levels. No major accomplishments in Congress for the next two years. McCain v Clinton for President 2008 will be all the talk. One more Supreme Court vacancy will be the biggest fight and Bush will get one more conservative on the court, barely.
Frankly, I'm OK with the whole scenario. It really is better when government is so tied up thinking about themselves that they can't start raising taxes or issuing new regulations.
He blamed the North Korean's ability to gain nuclear weaponry on Bill Clinton and his failed policies of appeasement with the rougue state. So much for 2006 and who's going to control Congress, the game is on for 2008.
Prediction: Republicans barely hold House and Senate. Bush's numbers start back up since gas prices are down and interest rates are headed back down after the first of the year. Iraq troops drawn down during 2007 to 50% of current levels. No major accomplishments in Congress for the next two years. McCain v Clinton for President 2008 will be all the talk. One more Supreme Court vacancy will be the biggest fight and Bush will get one more conservative on the court, barely.
Frankly, I'm OK with the whole scenario. It really is better when government is so tied up thinking about themselves that they can't start raising taxes or issuing new regulations.
Monday, October 02, 2006
Mid Day
Amish school attacked by crazy man, kills at least three and is shot dead by state troopers in assault. Bloomberg article You know it does seem like this is happening more these days.
October 2 Roundup
Sorry for the 3 week long delay on posts. Frankly, I have very little excuse save a painful set of attacks on us at Calvary Church that caused us to waste a whole bunch of time and energy. (Mt 5:11-12)
Here are the stories that I'm currently following and thinking about:
Venezuala and others try to restrict oil output and push oil prices back up. Basically they are continuing to try and manipulate the market using their illegal cartel. Time to take OPEC to task and challenge them to drop the pretenses of "protecting" the economy and stop manipulating the markets.
Gaza hooligans throw rocks at government cars and buildings in a protest that their salaries still weren't paid. But, do they really work? What do they do? The size of the entire Gaza Strip is smaller than the state of Rhode Island and they have 10 times the number of government employees per capita ... it's basically a socialist society with no market economy or stable tax system. When they run out of cash they go begging to other countries with the plea "we won't be able to stop the terror attacks if you don't give us cash."
Tax Research Project suggests what supply siders have said for decades, tax cuts benefit all tax payers. In this most recent round the $100-500,000 income earners are paying more of the total tax burden, that should make the class warfare types happy. The economy though is being assisted by more dollars staying in people's own hands. Here's the challenge: How does Congress gain the guts to eliminate the death tax and capital gain tax and simplify the tax code to three tax brackets with less exceptions? Will any Congress ever have the guts?
Blogger suggests that "play" at work is important, strictly speaking he uses a different definition of the word.
I missed this story originally, I guess a couple Americans decided to go over to Afghanistan and do their own search for terrorists and set up a private prison. They were arrested there by local authorities and sentenced to three years, and then released this weekend. Interesting questions, are they terrorists? Are they part of the war on terror? Are they CIA operatives?
An American company was awarded the contract to build the highway connecting Albania and soon to be independant country Kosovo. Is this reverse out-sourcing?
Interesting article that suggests that 15 years after Islamacists take over a country and kill millions of people in civil war and hatred, then democracy and liberty can kick back in. The article spotlights Algeria but suggests the same could happen in Iran soon.
Local county commisioner Bob Harper doesn't like the law ... well maybe it's time he get out of government then.
Here are the stories that I'm currently following and thinking about:
Venezuala and others try to restrict oil output and push oil prices back up. Basically they are continuing to try and manipulate the market using their illegal cartel. Time to take OPEC to task and challenge them to drop the pretenses of "protecting" the economy and stop manipulating the markets.
Gaza hooligans throw rocks at government cars and buildings in a protest that their salaries still weren't paid. But, do they really work? What do they do? The size of the entire Gaza Strip is smaller than the state of Rhode Island and they have 10 times the number of government employees per capita ... it's basically a socialist society with no market economy or stable tax system. When they run out of cash they go begging to other countries with the plea "we won't be able to stop the terror attacks if you don't give us cash."
Tax Research Project suggests what supply siders have said for decades, tax cuts benefit all tax payers. In this most recent round the $100-500,000 income earners are paying more of the total tax burden, that should make the class warfare types happy. The economy though is being assisted by more dollars staying in people's own hands. Here's the challenge: How does Congress gain the guts to eliminate the death tax and capital gain tax and simplify the tax code to three tax brackets with less exceptions? Will any Congress ever have the guts?
Blogger suggests that "play" at work is important, strictly speaking he uses a different definition of the word.
I missed this story originally, I guess a couple Americans decided to go over to Afghanistan and do their own search for terrorists and set up a private prison. They were arrested there by local authorities and sentenced to three years, and then released this weekend. Interesting questions, are they terrorists? Are they part of the war on terror? Are they CIA operatives?
An American company was awarded the contract to build the highway connecting Albania and soon to be independant country Kosovo. Is this reverse out-sourcing?
Interesting article that suggests that 15 years after Islamacists take over a country and kill millions of people in civil war and hatred, then democracy and liberty can kick back in. The article spotlights Algeria but suggests the same could happen in Iran soon.
Local county commisioner Bob Harper doesn't like the law ... well maybe it's time he get out of government then.
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