Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russia. Show all posts

Monday, September 08, 2008

President Bush yanks nuclear agreement with Russia

In continuing signs that the stand-off with Russia will continue into the foreseeable future:

Source: Reuters
WASHINGTON, Sept 8 (Reuters) - President George W. Bush has pulled a lucrative civilian nuclear accord with Russia, the State Department said on Monday, the first tangible U.S. penalty imposed on Russia after its war with Georgia.

The implications are chilling, we start cutting Russia off from the world. Russia continues to feel obliged to react and retaliate. I have posted numerous times on my Kosovo mini-blog, that cooler heads should prevail. Surely there is a way that South Ossetia can be given some form of self-determination as Kosovo was?

Monday, August 18, 2008

Star Wars Defense for American Cyber Security

In the 1980's Ronald Reagan sent our nation on the path of nuclear security by investing in the Star Wars defense system. I'm no expert, so I don't even know that we got all the way to the level that he envisioned, but we did invest heavily in innovation and one result was the fall of the Soviet Union. To be frank, no one in the world can keep up when we join together and decide to research and innovate.

"Since July 20, Internet security experts have been tracking coordinated cyber attacks on Georgia’s Internet infrastructure. It is still unclear to what extent the Russian military directly carried out these attacks, but two things are known for sure: 1) the traffic patterns and servers used in the attack are “overwhelmingly coming out of Russia” and 2) the attacks coincided with conventional Russian military action. Military experts believe the Georgian conflict is the first time cyber warfare has been used alongside a conventional war." From Morning Call: Cyber Wake-up


I think this is the next frontier for Star Wars (sorry for mixing the metaphors) and that we as a nation need to join together and develop the best cyber security and cyber attack capabilities.

Monday, August 11, 2008

More thoughts on Georgian mini-war

I've been researching, reading, and commenting over the weekend on the actions taken by both Georgia and Russia starting Friday morning during the Olympics Opening Ceremonies.

First, there is no easy side to choose for America. Our ally is being attacked, but doing any more than applying pressure sure won't be a good thing for oil or our security. The Russians believe they are supporting the South Ossetian minority in Georgia, an ethnic group with a lot more ties to Russia than Georgia.

But ... would we be all that excited if Texas wanted to leave our union because they became more Mexican? Of course not.

What to do?

Chris Hedges reported today that Russia has also launched a cyberattack on Georgia.

Kevin Tracy suggests that Georgia isn't clean handed

My own research over the weekend on Georgia and South Ossetia

Friday, August 08, 2008

Some research on South Ossetia

This won't be my most graphic post ever, I'm watching the Opening Ceremonies of the Olympics while doing some research so I can better understand South Ossetia.

Obvious place to start, Wikipedia highlights:

"Most Ossetians are now Christian (approximately 61%); there is also a significant Muslim minority." (Sunni)
They speak Ossetic, an Indo-European language of the Iranian branch.
Most of the Ossetes today are Eastern Orthodox Christians. (I found quotes from both the Russian Patriarch and the Georgian Patriarch today asking for truce and peace from their parishioners)

Under the rule of Georgia's government during Soviet times, it enjoyed some degree of autonomy including speaking the Ossetian language and teaching it in schools

The Ossetians are descendants of a tribe called the Alans. Like the Georgians, the Ossetians are orthodox Christians, but they have their own language. In Soviet times the Ossetians had an autonomous region within Georgia. The Georgians say the Ossetians cooperated with the Bolsheviks and tended to be more pro-Soviet. Their ethnic kin live across the border in the Russian region of North Ossetia, so they feel more drawn to Russia than to Georgia - and many have Russian passports (from Q and A)

Oil: The pipeline that crosses Georgia can pump slightly more than 1 million barrels of crude oil per day, or more than 1 percent of the world's daily crude output. The 1,100-mile pipeline carries oil from Azerbaijan's Caspian Sea fields, estimated to hold the world's third-largest reserves. Its potential vulnerability was already in the spotlight after it was sabotaged this week, apparently by Kurdish separatists.

Note to self: All these sites are using the same talking points, I really need to dig past them and get to some meat from the locals. Help ... If you have links to resources I want a better understanding of this situation.

So far my thoughts:
  • Russia wants South Ossetians to like them, if they tick them off they end up with problems with their own Ossetians on the north side of the border
  • Georgia thought they could launch an attack during Olympics and we would back them against Russia
  • Sounds like both sides need to get out of the province, and then do serious talks about the next stage
But, I'm still confused about when a people group, in this case 98% voted for separation, can actually get out of a country they don't like?

Another Update: From a commenter on Kevin Tracy's blog. And this person feels a whole lot different than what most American and Western media are reporting:

August, 9
After another night of fighting, Georgians still killing all the people which they can find in the ruined city, no matter military or civilians. They destroyed the only hospital, university and bakery. No food, no water, no help to the people there. Snipers are killing old people on the streets, who are slow and easy targeted. Russians take the nothern part of city, but still heavy fights and many Russian tanks are burning. Several aircrafts are shot down, seems that Georgian, but in Georgia reported to be Russian. Georgian TV says to the whole country that Tshinvally is under controlf of Georgian troops and the operation will soon be over. Russian TV shows the real picture from the battle field. It seems that many soldiers killed, but there are still many heavy fights.
Later Saakashvilly starts to blame “Russian Invaders, who attacked small Georgia”.
Then I see him on many western channes, they also show ruined Tskhinvally streets, BUT SAYING THAT THESE ARE STREETS OF GEORGIAN TOWNS, AFTER RUSSIAN BOMBINGS, but these are OSETIAN streets, after GEORGIAN BOMBINGS and attacks. There are cars with russian numbers, russian signs and what is more important: russian soldiers, walking peacefully in”Georgian bombed towns”. Do you think this is possible???

August 10: Tskhinvally is cleaned from Georgian troops (they always retreat when meet some resistance, this happened same 16 years ago and before). Saakashvilly says that he wants peace.
He difinitely wants now, after no forces left to attack. The mission complete! He is a victim of Russian bear(Medvedev is coming from word “bear” in russian… Everybody in the world is indignant by Russia bombing “poor little Georgia” with military budget of US$ 1 billion of American money during last year… But nobody remembers that they started killing women and children on last Thursday night, when everybody were asleep peacefully in their beds. Nobody knows that they has opened water pipe system to drown the rest of the poor people still hiding in the basements of Tskhinvally from the continuing missle and artillery attacks. This is how he want’s peace. New wonderful and touchy show arranged by America.



Update: Notes from friend in Sweden who's been to Georgia:

"Kosovo and Kurdistan are relatively easy AFAIC. Turkey as a country hasn't existed but since the end of WW I, and the Kurds happened to get swept up in it. I think it's reasonable that they should have a significant degree of independence. Kosovars are a completely separate ethnic group that happened not to get broken-off from Serbia in the Civil War.

I see some of the more difficult ethnic conflicts as including Russians who were moved to Latvia after June 1940 and are statless and the Basque/Catalan questions in Spain."

"Russia is trying to provoke Georgia. They've been doing it ever since Georgia declared independence and stepped it up after Sakhashvili got elected. Russian is the second-language in Armenia, which is very close with Russia, but as soon as you cross the border from Armenia into Georgia, you no longer see anything in Russian. I had better luck speaking French (what little I speak) than Russian in Georgia, and this shows the country's western orientation that annoys Putin to no end. First he banned Georgian wine (wine is a huge business in Georgia), then he raided Georgian restaurants in Moscow (Georgia has fabulous food that's very popular in Russia), and now he sends in the tanks.

The borders of Georgia are very old, dating to 600 BCE, and it's pretty clear to me that Georgia has a legitimate claim on both S. Ossetia and Abkhazia."

"South Ossetia is Georgian Othodox with a smattering of Muslims. It's an ancient offshoot of the original church, predating even the Council of Nicaea. Georgian Orthodox is an extremely conservative branch and they take it very seriously--a priest kicked me out of a church in Tblisi on a 95-degree day because I was wearing shorts.

Georgia is a hugely fractured country with dozens of ethnic groups (see also Abkhazia), many of them dating back to antiquity. The ethnic groups don't get along (see also Nagorno-Karabakh), and under Stalin many were uprooted and resettled. Now they are all mixed up but have rediscovered their ferocious ethnic nationalism (see also Chechnya)."


Russian Tanks cross into Georgia

While watching the Olympic Opening Ceremonies with my son this morning, lo and behold, the internet lights up with reports of Russian tanks breaking across national lines and invading Georgia ... and Georgian military reports of shooting down two (or four) Russian fighter planes.

It will probably take hours to get the real stories, but for sure there's a problem on the Russia-Georgia boundary, and we could see a localized war during the Olympics.