I think I might be the first to predict:
We will see $40 a barrel oil and $2.00 gas again. Let's just call it March of 2006.
The recent run-up has some irrationalness to it. Also, the rebuilding of production and refining in the Gulf will actually increase both production and efficiency. Give us another hurricane and $200 billion and the gulf will be one of the economic miracles of this decade.
With gas settling, and oil retreating, inflation will no longer be a concern for the next 12 months.
Watch for a stock market run-up during the oil retreat. A couple more interest rate increases will help slow the housing run-up ... causing even more consolidation in the home building business.
Now, since I'm the only amateur economist suggesting this result, read some others. Times,
Yahoo News, Bloomberg Energy
Go ahead tell me I'm wrong
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